The authors consider 2022 as a turning point, completing the next stage of history and marking the beginning of a new era. The method of global political forecasting is used as an extrapolation of the global political challenges that have developed in the present, which predetermine trends in the development of global political processes, to the future state of the global political system. This method represents a probabilistic approach to the phenomena of the future, taking into account a wide range of possible options and it can be used for short-term forecasts. The future is seen as a product of politics, and political activity as an important component that can largely determine trends in global development. Based on the use of the “challenge-response” principle, it becomes possible to predict not the probability of any events, but a certain predetermined reaction to global political challenges. The article forecasts trends in the development of global political processes and provides a forecast of the formation of the international agenda for the coming years. The following trends in the development of global political processes have been identified: the geopolitical rift; the ongoing crisis of global governance; humanitarian disasters caused by a number of global crises (climate, energy, food, migration) and the increase in conflict potential; the increasing role of the countries of the Global South in geopolitics; the development of the format of minilatralism and its impact on international cooperation. The analysis showed that it is political goals and objectives, values and meanings that become the dominant locomotive of global political development and motivators of political action by global political actors. The authors have made the conclusion about the increasing role of the political component of global processes.
Key words: global political forecasting, “challenge—response”, global political challenges, global political processes, trends in global development.
10.56429/2414-4894-2023-45-3-3-22

The events of the early 2000s showed that the technologies of changing power through “color revolutions” work in countries with a high level of perception of corruption, other things being equal, problems in the economy, politics and society. The objective of this study is to study, using quantitative methods, the existence of links and patterns between the corruption perception index and types of socio-political destabilization, in particular, for neighboring countries, as one of the unstable zones of the world. The conducted statistical analysis showed that for neighboring countries there is a statistically significant positive relationship between the value of the corruption perception index and various indices of socio-political destabilization. The obtained result proves why the revolutionary events of the XXI century in the region under consideration occur precisely in those countries where the level of perception of corruption has high values.
Key words: socio-political destabilization, index of corruption, index of socio-political destabilization, types of socio-political destabilization.
10.56429/2414-4894-2023-45-3-23-42

Modern international relations are experiencing extreme uncertainty, military and political polarization, which increases the negative consequences of interstate relations. Geopolitical changes associated with the collapse of states, changes from national borders and threats to the sovereignty of small countries are becoming a factor of instability. The Republic of Serbia is a vivid example of this regard. The purpose of this article is to investigate the factors determining the foreign policy guidelines on the Republic of Serbia at the present stage. The specificity of the place of Serbia in the world arena is determined by its strategic geopolitical position and aspiration for dominance in the Western Balkans and the Non-Aligned Movement. It has been revealed that the stability of the foreign policy of the Republic of Serbia is given by the awareness of the goals of national security, multi-vector strategy “four pillars”. Realizing that confrontation with the world political relations contributes to their imbalance and destabilization, Serbia declares a policy of neutrality and maneuvering in order to preserve its sovereignty and identity, to avoid excessive pressure of the dominant powers. The European foreign policy vectors remain a priority to Serbia. But on the way to European Union membership, there are unresolved problems related to the recognition of Kosovo independence, sanctions against Russia, anti-American sentiments of the majority of the population. At the same time, Serbia realizes the economic advantages of cooperation not only with the EU, but also with China, and pragmatically relies on Russia’s support in solving economic problems and the Kosovo issue. Factors shaping Serbia’s foreign policy are multilateral diplomacy, multilateral cooperation, non-use of force, peaceful mediation and peacemaking, and a desire for peaceful political resolution of conflicts.
Key words: foreign policy course, foreign policy priorities, foreign policy, Re8 public of Serbia, China, Russia, EU, USA.
10.56429/2414-4894-2023-45-3-43-60

In the context of the transformation of the system of international relations towards a multipolar world, it becomes obvious that contradictions arise in the field of international cooperation, which has destructive consequences for the development of the world community. In connection with the expansion of negative trends in the field of world progress, the experience of scientific and technical cooperation between the USSR and the USA in the 20th century can be used to maintain interaction between Russia and the USA in modern geopolitical conditions, at least at the minimum acceptable level. Between the Russian Federation and the United States, interaction in space continues, despite the systemic crisis in relations and serious contradictions in the conceptual foundations of the countries’ foreign policy. However, the half-century experience of cooperation between the Soviet Union and the United States in the field of protecting the environment and the oceans has now been suspended. The main sources of work were the materials of the periodical press, legal documents regulating the relations between states, documents of international organizations, speeches by leaders of countries and statistical data on the scientific and technical policy of countries. The article uses the scientific research of Russian and foreign authors who studied the “detente of international tension”, the experience of cooperation between the USSR and the USA in the field of science and technology, as well as the prospects for scientific and technological revolution in Russia and the United States. Systemic contradictions in relations between Russia and the United States may lead to the formation of a new Cold War and possible direct confrontation between the countries and their allies in the future. However, the joint development of the near-Earth space by Russia as the legal successor of the USSR and the United States is a kind of barrier to direct confrontation and one of the possible ways to normalize relations between countries.
Key words: scientific and technical cooperation, global problems, relations bet8 ween Russia and the USA, space cooperation, environmental protection.
10.56429/2414-4894-2023-45-3-61-77

The article discusses the comprehensive agreement between Iran and China on comprehensive strategic cooperation reached in March 2021, which the parties came to three years after the US withdrew from the nuclear agreement with Iran, in the context of the development of Iranian-Chinese relations at the present stage that have reached the level of strategic partnership. During the presidency of Donald Trump, China and especially Iran were subjected to serious political and economic pressure, which, on the one hand, led to a decrease in Iranian-Chinese economic cooperation, and on the other hand, greatly contributed to the political rapprochement of the two countries and ultimately helped to reach a strategic agreement. According to it, China will modernize Iran’s infrastructure and invest $400 billion in its economy in exchange for a discount on the purchase of Iranian oil. Despite optimistic expectations, the actual results of the implementation of the agreement turned out to be unsatisfactory: trade and investment did not grow as quickly as expected. This is due to the reluctance of Chinese companies to fall under US sanctions. However, the serious development of trade and economic cooperation with Iran is, of course, a long-term goal of the PRC leadership. Further implementation of the agreement will depend on China’s intentions and its willingness to worsen relations with its largest trading partner, the United States. If the US returns to the nuclear agreement and lifts sanctions, full implementation of the agreement can be expected.
Key words: Iran, China, energy, strategic cooperation, comprehensive agreement
10.56429/2414-4894-2023-45-3-78-90

This article describes the spring session of the International Scientific Congress “Globalistics-2023: Sustainable development in the context of global processes”, held from April, 17 to April, 27, 2023. Within the framework of the Congress, events were held in online, mixed and offline formats. The panelists presented their ideas in Russian, English and Chinese. The article is devoted to the results of the spring session of the Congress.
Key words: globalistics, Vernadsky, sustainable development, noosphere, ecology, Faculty of Global Processes, Club of Rome, the future of humanity
10.56429/2414-4894-2023-45-3-91-115

The article presents the results of a study of theoretical and methodological aspects of the role and status of the center of geopolitical influence in the context of the formation of a two-level system of global governance in a multipolar world. The relevance of this study is justified by the proactivity of the key actors in the regionalization of global political processes associated with the formation of the poles of a multipolar world and the transition from a monocentric to a polycentric model of global governance. The main methodological approaches of this study are geopolitical, cybernetic, civilizational and organistic. When conducting the study, not related to the specified methodological approaches, but justified by the objectives of the study, general and special research methods were also used. As a result of the study, it was revealed that the systemforming factor in the formation of the pole of a multipolar world is the property of the middle ground and geopolitical subjectivity of the center of geopolitical influence. The structure of the pole of the multipolar world is determined by the ability of states to ensure the functional integrity of the regional system of international relations. The concept of multipolarity as an ideological superstructure of the globalization of political processes cannot be realized without the formation of a system of decentralized global governance based on the consensus of centers of geopolitical influence in a multipolar world. The study identified the following factors in the formation of global governance bodies in a multipolar world: the middle Pacific, the diversification of economic cooperation between centers of geopolitical influence, and the need for joint security by the poles of a multipolar world.
Key words: geopolitical influence center, global governance, multipolarity, globalization and regionalization of political processes, geopolitics, cybernetics, middle ground.
10.56429/2414-4894-2023-44-2-3-18

The article analysis the activities of Germany’s national armed forces within the framework of NATO missions. These activities hold particular interest for the study of Germany’s growing autonomy on the world stage. Considering the current state of regional security, the focus of the article is on the contribution of the Bundeswehr and the politicomilitary leadership of the FRG to a number of missions in different regions of the world, which allows to consider Germany as a state that seeks to play a more active role in ensuring security in Europe. The geographic expansion of the Bundeswehr’s forces and capabilities as well as the intensity of the missions indicates increasing in autonomy of the Federal Republic of Germany on the international arena. Simultaneously with this growing independence, there is an increasing interest on the part of the German politico-military leadership to participate in the Alliance’s missions in Eastern Europe, where tensions are higher than ever before.
Key words: FRG, Bundeswehr, political-military leadership, NATO, EU, UN, military policy, political-military cooperation, special military operation, Ukraine, defense budget
10.56429/2414-4894-2023-44-2-19-38

A successful example of the development of regional integration processes in the economic space of Eurasia is the functioning of the states within the EAEU. An analysis of the economic structure of the member countries leads to the conclusion about the priority role of industry and trade and economic relations in strengthening the position of the EAEU in the international arena. The necessity of the growth of macroeconomic indicators (volumes of production and services, foreign exports and mutual trade) and the activity of administrative-territorial entities in order to find reliable partners in the context of ongoing anti-Russian sanctions in order to strengthen interstate cooperation is substantiated. A more substantive application of the scientific tools of country studies to identify the prospects for the development of integration processes in the Eurasian space is proposed. Recommendations on the need for an in-depth study of individual countries, their natural resource characteristics, population distribution, economic potential and its most important elements have been formulated. Further regional scientific research should be focused on identifying resource opportunities and factors of territorial competitiveness in order to search for promising market niches, and on this basis, develop economic and financial regulation measures, create favorable conditions for economic activity and develop international cooperation.
Key words: Greater Eurasia, partnership, international division of labor, regional integration, total economic potential.
10.56429/2414-4894-2023-44-2-39-58

The coronavirus pandemic, which began in 2020, was the largest phenomenon in terms of its scale in recent decades and had a global impact on all aspects of public life, including socio-economic processes. An assessment of the scale of the impact of the pandemic on the socio-economic processes in socialist China is the subject of this article. The article continues a two-year large-scale study of the problem of the impact of the consequences of a pandemic on socio-economic processes in countries with various forms of public economy. Socio-economic processes in the People’s Republic of China during the pandemic showed the opposite dynamics to the marketoriented countries of the European Union, the Russian Federation and the United States. This is determined by the conditions for the formation of these forms of production. The study showed that the consequences of the pandemic had a multi-vector impact on socio-economic processes in countries with various forms of public economy. If in market-oriented countries the pandemic in its movement leads to the same consequences as the general law of capitalist accumulation, compensating for the weakening of its action, then in a non-market-oriented country the pandemic did not have a noticeable impact on socio-economic development, determined by five-year plans. As a result of the study, it was shown that the socio-economic consequences of the pandemic in marketoriented countries led to a narrowed reproduction of the social product, while in the People’s Republic of China, the reproduction of the social product continued to be expanded.
Key words: pandemic, dynamics of indicators, socio-economic processes, market oriented countries, People’s Republic of China.
10.56429/2414-4894-2023-44-2-59-71

The complexity of Russia-China relations in the Eurasian space prompts us to take a fresh look at these relations, using different angles to adequately understand the rapidly changing situation. The crucial task of maintaining an equal partnership between Russia and China as the balance of power changes often proves difficult. At present, it is impossible to fully describe Russian-Chinese interaction in the Eurasian space using only geopolitical concepts. The author uses the term “hedging”, which is borrowed from the financial-investment sphere, to solve the problems posed. Hedging in international relations is a strategy of building close relations with a strong partner while respecting its own interests and diversifying relations in order to prevent excessive dependence on it. This article analyzes Russia’s hedging against China’s behavior in the Eurasian space in three aspects: economics, security and the Eurasian integration concept. Geopolitical changes in the Eurasian space and inequality are the most important factors causing hedging between Russia and China. Russia hedges its risks vis-а-vis China in the pairing of the Eurasian Economic Union and the initiative “Belt and Road”, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Eurasian integration initiative, which is characterized by increased collective bargaining power, diversified policies, and the search for alternatives. The consideration of Russia-China interaction from the perspective of hedging makes a definite contribution to the development of the theory of Russia-China relations. Nevertheless, this topic requires further research. Key words: Russian-Chinese relations, Eurasia, hedging, cooperation problems.
10.56429/2414-4894-2023-44-2-72-84

Abstract. Russia, Ukraine and Belarussia have strong historical and blood ties. Unlike Russia, Ukraine and Belarussia didn’t have much of experience in maintaining their own sovereign statehood. The differences in historical circumstances caused emergence of distinct mentalities of the nations. The goal of the article is to investigate the circumstances that formed Belorussian mentality. The methodological framework consists of synergetic and historical-genetic approach as well as comparative analysis along with interdisciplinary methods of analysis and synthesis. White and Black Ruthenia weren’t obliterated by the Golden Horde. While being weakened by disintegration of the Kievan Rus’ they faced the Crusades which made them ally with the Lithuanians and form the Russo-Lithuanian state of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. The Belorussian mentality was being formed within the decentralized federation of the Westruthenian and Lithuanian duchies, greatly influenced by heritage of the Kievan Rus’. White and Black Ruthenia were a core of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and brought cultural and political features of the Kievan Rus’ into the state. The Grand Duchy of Lithuania took the path of de+ centralized feudal state building where the Russian duchies had broad political autonomy and grand duke’s authority was limited by a social class of landowners called «Szlachta». The Belorussian ethnicity was being formed within the Russo-Lithuanian state influenced by the heritage of the Kievan Rus’ and emerged before the Union of Lublin. Feudal character of the Grand Duchy played the main role in the formation of the Belorussian mentality. Willing to defend their own unique political identity, White and Black Ruthenia fought against any state that tried to conquer them, including Muscovy.
Key words: White Ruthenia, Black Ruthenia, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Russo5Lithuanian state, szlachta, Sarmatism
10.56429/2414-4894-2023-43-1-3-17

Abstract. The Middle East remains the leader on a global scale in terms of the number of interstate conflicts, the rampant terrorism and religious extremism due to the lack of a regional security system. Nonetheless, there are number of states in the region that can contribute to the expansion of political instruments to re+ duce tension in the region, which also includes Turkey. The purpose of the article is to analyze the role of Turkey in ensuring the regional security of the Middle East from the point of view of the energy sector. To consider the role of Turkey in ensuring the regional security of the Middle East, content analysis was used in the process of studying the works of foreign and domestic researchers, a systematic approach that was necessary to consider the influence of socio-economic, political and religious-ethnic factors. An analysis of the role of Turkey in ensuring the regional security of the Middle East makes it possible to emphasize the key position of the Republic of Turkey for the formation of this region as one of the central gas distribution centers. Tur+ key’s multi-vector policy is becoming a kind of key to balancing power in the Midle East. And, despite such an explosive situation, which is becoming more complicated as the conflict in Ukraine escalates, Turkey’s current geopolitical position between Europe and Asia can help it become one of the most important actors that can strengthen regional security against the backdrop of newly growing tensions bet+ ween some countries in the Middle East.
Key words: regional security, Middle East, Turkish foreign policy, energy crisis, multi5vector approach.
10.56429/2414-4894-2023-43-1-18-29

Abstract. The article analyzes the main tools of Britain’s influence in the international arena through the transmission of national identification values, both in retrospective and today. The institutional and historical methods and analytical approach are used in the research. The purpose of the study is to briefly show how some of the most important values of the British political elites have found their functionality in a practical context in the past and in modern realities. The conclusions are illustrated by the speeches of statesmen and references to the founding documents of the British Empire, the main of which is the Magna Carta. The evolution of such important concepts as the island mentality, the leading role of the problem of ownership in the formation of a precedent, the origins of the emergence of audit and consulting in the socio-political system of Great Britain, the formation of a network of private schools for the training of universal managers are traced, defining role and place of these factors in promoting British interests.
Key words: indirect rule, British political elites, private schools, consulting agencies, island mentality
10.56429/2414-4894-2023-43-1-30-42

Abstract. The article highlights the actual significance of transcontinental communications of the South Caucasus in China’s global projects, situational changes and their impact in the context of geopolitical conflicts between the West and Russia. The author points out the historical ties between China and the Caucasus, the extent to which the topic of China-South Caucasian relations is elaborated in the Russian scientific community. The main goal of his work — to study the role and impact of the South Caucasus in the foreign economic strategy of the People’s Republic of China. Using a variety of techniques (chronological, structural-analytical, comparison and collation), the author reviews the materials related to the creation of a new Silk Road. The thesis that the South Caucasus is significant for China in terms of countering the Islamist threat in the PRC is fallacious, indicates that there is no political interest of Beijing in the Caucasus, where the traditional Chinese tactics of “soft power” are being implemented.
Key words: China, South Caucasus, Russia, logistics, economic corridor, trans5 continental communications, diversification, trade
10.56429/2414-4894-2023-43-1-43-54

Abstract. Due to the Olympic Games, China has been able to increase the scale of the “one community” in the fight against the global problems of mankind. Positive media coverage of the 2008 and 2022 Olympics, euphonious feedback from participants and observers strengthened the reputation of the state as a reliable and hospitable host that ensured the safety of observation and athletes. The purpose of this article is to study the Olympic Games as a tool of “soft power” for the formation of a positive image of the country. On the rise of the media discourse around the holding of the Winter Olympic Games in Beijing, it was shown how one can talk about one’s socio-economic achievements, the national image and the increase in the international authority of the state. The results of the study show that China was able to change the media discourse to a more desirable one for the image of the country during the 2022 Olympic Games. The opening ceremony of the 2022 Olympics was the culmination of a ceremony to celebrate China’s technological, socio-economic and cultural achievements. The reactions of the international community to the 2022 Winter Olympics can be described as positive. China’s handling of the unprecedented challenges posed by the COVID+19 pandemic during the Olympics was highlighted. The successful use of resources and careful prepartion for the Olympics has allowed China to enhance its image in the international arena. The experience of China has become an important question of how the host countries of the Olympics can use the media communication opportunities that come from it.
Key words: Olympic Games, image of the country, Winter Olympic Games in Beijing, symbols of the 2022 Games, image of China.
10.56429/2414-4894-2023-43-1-55-71

Editor-in-chief’s word
10.56429/2414-4894-2022-41-3-3-6

10.56429/2414-4894-2020-34-4-5-12

Introduction. The causes and consequences of the global confrontation between Russia and the West after the collapse of the USSR in relation to the internal socio-economic problems of the country are considered. Materials and methods. The main challenges and risks for modern Russia are investigated using methods of comparative analysis of socio-economic policy based on the philosophical and political science aspects of universal evolutionism N.N. Moiseev. Results of the study. Introduction to scientific circulation of a document indicating the strengthening of external global challenges for modern Russia. The crisis of Western culture, family values and ideological confrontation, the intensification of attempts to revise the outcome of World War II is also a global challenge to Russian cultural and historical identity. Discussion. Further domestic and foreign studies is needed on the features of global challenges and risks for modern Russia; civilization approaches in assessing global risks for the Russian cultural and historical identity and the Russian world. Conclusion. In the current geopolitical situation, it is important to unite domestic and foreign scientists to form a modern scientific picture of the world, to conduct a comprehensive study of Russian civilization and to develop scientifically based responses to global challenges and risks.
Key words: globalization, challenges and risks, civilizational faults, identity, methodology.
10.56429/2414-4894-2020-34-4-13-21

Introduction. The importance of elite identity values has long been in the focus of researcher’s attention and all of them agree that it is the elites who determine the strategy and tactics of the state’s domestic and foreign policy. It is the political nature of the elites’ identity that defines their approaches to many values, such as: equality, freedom, distribution of benefits, and the priorities in external and internal political issues. Materials and methods. Historical analysis is used to study the factors influencing the formation of political identity in Russia which guarantees an objective understanding of the problem. Besides, it is necessary to take into account a close correlation between the language and the culture, for which we suggest to apply the sociolinguistic isomorphism method. Results of the study. The evolution of political elites always follows one and the same path: they quickly enter into the political arena, act actively, try to really change the lives of the people for the better. The language is an utmost embodiment of identity and as such it reflects the main trends in socio-political life of the society, giving an unbiased reflection of people’s attitude to what is happening in the country which entails specific word-formation mechanisms. Discussion. Russian elites in the course of Russian history were represented by the boyars, the nobles, the party elite of the CPSU and the new Russian elite. A huge number of privileges enjoyed by the elite led to extremely negative reaction of the society, which often leads to dramatic, revolutionary changes, the latter being reflected in linguistic word-building mechanisms. Conclusion. The values of the elites are often perceived by the society as contradicting the Russian values, contradicting the innate values of “justice” of the Russian people, which is always reflected in the dictionary of certain historical phases.
Key words: political elites, boyars, nobility, word)formation mechanisms, abbreviation, national identity
10.56429/2414-4894-2020-34-4-22-33

Introduction. In the context of the strategic aggravation of the geopolitical situation, as well as the fact that the Eurasian (post-Soviet) space is itself subject to many external and internal threats, the question of the necessity and sufficiency, as well as the consistency of collective security measures in this region, is relevant. The aim of the work is to clarify the relative level of readiness of the countries of the key security organization in the post-Soviet space – the CSTO, to these threats. Materials and methods. The method of comparative analysis, the general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, and the approaches of system analysis are used in the work. Results of the study. In the post-Soviet space, Russia, Armenia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan have the largest defense spending relative to GDP. At the same time, most of the CSTO countries have defense spending not very large 1%. A similar situation is faced with NATO, where the United States bears the main burden, while the young “satellite” of the bloc – the Baltic countries have to bear a more serious burden of ensuring security for the economy. Discussion. The level of defense spending in Russia as a whole is fully consistent with the level of threats to its security, the need to help ensure the security of allied countries (primarily the CSTO). At the same time, the high level of military-technical and military-educational cooperation between Russia and foreign countries, as well as information attacks of the West on its indicators, are evidence of Russia’s global authority in the field of security. Conclusion. There are a number of areas of the need to ensure collective security (humanitarian, information, biological), the development and elaboration of consensus on which at the strategic level needs to be intensified.
Key words: defense spending, national security spending, military-industrial complex, collective security, CSTO, NATO, CIS, arms exports.
10.56429/2414-4894-2020-34-4-34-47

Introduction. The article reveals the issue of Crimean “Verkhovna Rada” rationale according to “remedial secession” prerequisites. Materials and methods. To figure out the issues of the article, we need to follow the methodology of legal courts. Thus, an instrument of dispute settlement requires both fact-finding and evaluation of facts, legal interpretation, and application of rules to facts. This article’s fact-finding is however limited to elements necessary to adjudicate whether right subsumption is annexation or remedial secession. Results of the study. This part does reveal “Western position” to Crimean turmoil – i.e. disagreement on whether Crimea process of referendum and resolution of independence combined (the “Crimean formula”) is contradictory to international law. Discussion. This article focuses on following issues: First, justification of Crimea secession from Ukraine. Which are the motivations of the Crimean “Verkhovna Rada“? The query is whether these aims supports or ruins peoples’ right to remedial secession. Conclusion. Given all the facts, the western powers’ criticism is conceivable. However, as these two articles reveal, Crimea – events does not fit into western version: antagonists fail to make evident “the annexation-story” on Russian “invasion” of Crimea March 2014.
Key words: International law, Crimean remedial secession, Referendum, Coup d’etats, annexation.
10.56429/2414-4894-2020-34-4-48-61

Introduction. The expediency of analyzing Trump’s immigration policy as one of the markers of the tendency to shift balance of power relations in USA under the “imperial presidency” new modification is substantiated. Materials and methods. The source base of the article was the executive directives and proclamations of Trump, international declarations, the results of opinion polls by private NGOs, studies of Russian and foreign academic centers, etc. In the research methodology, the authors adhere to an integrative approach. Results of the study. An analysis of the actions of Trump in the field of building an immigration policy and the specifics of their legal registration is carried out. Under Trump, the United States withdrew from significant international agreements on migrants and refugees. He limited the influx of refugees and visitors from muslim countries to the United States, and also set out to abolish DACA and halve leal immigration. Discussion. The administration’s attempt to restore order in the field of immigration without a comprehensive immigration reform, relying solely on a momentary, repressive measures, contributed to the polarization of society and the securitization of immigration issues. Conclusion. The politicization of immigration issues increases with the beginning of a new electoral cycle and the intensification of the struggle between Democrats and Republicans. At the same time, the social division deepens and one of the key elements of American identity is eroded – the presentation of oneself as a “nation of immigrants”. The abuse of this law in the field of immigration policy testifies to the drift of the American political system in the opposite direction to democracy.
Key words: immigration policy, Donald Trump, USA, executive order, proclamation, muslim ban, DACA.
10.56429/2414-4894-2020-34-4-62-74

Introduction. This article is devoted to the activities of the Bank for International Settlements that contributed to European integration. Historical political milestones are particularly emphasized. Materials and methods. The main sources of this research were publicly available archives of the Bank for International Settlements and institutions that it dealt with. Key research methods were the historical approach, which was used to understand the origin of the European integration process, and the political analysis of both the ideological preparation process and the initial stage of the European integration project. Results of the study. The Bank participated in major projects to restore and unify the European economy, starting from the Marshall Plan in 1948, until January 2002, when the euro finally replaced national EU countries’ currencies. The governors of European central banks and politicians favouring European integration cooperated at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, eventually overcoming all anti-integration trends. Discussion. The consequences of the Bank’s activities surpass the monetary/financial sphere and take on a political nature. This article positions the Bank as one of the primary institutions driving the European integration project. Conclusion. The study revealed that the Bank for International Settlements played not only an economic role, but also a political role, which is especially manifested in the process of European integration.
Key words: European integration, Marshall Plan, Bank for International Settle_ments, European Coal and Steel Community, European Central Bank.
10.56429/2414-4894-2020-34-4-75-84

Abstract. The article describes the main events and summarizes the results of the autumn stage of the International Scientific Congress “Globalistics_-2020: Glo_bal Problems and the Future of Humanity”. The article notes that the Congress was held virtually. All events were decided to be held online in Russian and English with using videoconferencing. Key words: Globalistics, World Academy of Art and Science, UNESCO, Club of Rome, Faculty of Global Studies, the future of humankind.
10.56429/2414-4894-2020-34-4-85-97

In Memory of Arkady D. Ursul

Abstract. This paper was prepared based on the materials of the same name report, made by the author at the plenary session of VII Scientific and Practical Conference of Russian Analysts at the INION RAS on October 20, 2022. The main methodological approach to the study of global processes is an interdisciplinary system analysis, supported by the active use of mathematical modeling. This paper not only assesses the current processes of phase transition in global
development, analyzes them from the point of view of various scenarios for its implementation, but also puts forward proposals for the actions of our country in new, unique for world history, conditions. An important conclusion of the report and article is a reasonable assumption about the special significance of Russia in the process of forming a new world order as the ideological core of this process and the basis for its resource support.
Key words: world order models, world dynamics, global development scenarios, future design, Russia.
10.56429/2414-4894-2022-42-4-3-11

Introduction. The subject of this article is the processes taking place in domestic tourism under the inf luence of external inf luences of the COVID19 pandemic and Western sanctions. The purpose and objectives of the article are to show the dynamics of the recovery of Russian tourism, reveal the effectiveness of the measures taken and consider strategies for its development.
Materials and methods. The main sources of information were official documents, reports of foreign and domestic tourist organizations. The work included data from specialized websites, materials from scientific monographs and articles. The study used statistical and comparative analysis of the available information.
Results of the study. Various scenarios for the recovery of international tourism being developed in the literature. Most experts believe that overcoming the deepest crisis in the tourism industry is possible only with the combined efforts of the world community. In fact, support for the restoration of tourism turned out to be extremely selective, and above all, in relation to Russia.
Discussion. The situation in Russian tourism is complicated by the fact that it has been hit by antiRussian sanctions from the West. The path that tourism will
take depends on many factors. The most promising development strategy was the development of domestic Russian tourism. Government support programs for tourism have had a significant impact on the recovery of domestic tourism. Along with this, the tourism development strategy in Russia is focused on the creation of digi
tal platforms and the use of the advantages of modern information technologies in the industry.
Conclusion. The COVID19 pandemic and Western sanctions, along with the negative impact, have become catalysts for the development of domestic tourism, accelerating the solution of emerging problems and demonstrating resilience.
Key words: “coronavirus” crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, anti-Russian sanctions, tourism revival, tourist cashback.
10.56429/2414-4894-2022-42-4-12-26

Introduction.The author points out that the slowdown in economic growth rates, breaks in international economic ties, trade wars, efficiency problems in the
banking sector in the leading countries of the world economy, indicate a transformational crisis, the most important manifestation of which is the increasing importance various currency areas, which should be considered as potential alternatives to the dominant US dollar currency area.
Materials and methods.The authors rely on materials of the official websites of leading financial organizations, analytical agencies, monographs of both domestic
and foreign authors for applying the analytical method based on the principle of extrapolation and historicity.
Results of the study. The article reveals the essence, conditions for the formation and significance for the participating countries of an effective currency area
in the context of a transformational crisis and high turbulence in the world economy. The ongoing changes in the economies of most of the leading countries indicate the emergence of objective prerequisites for a transformational crisis, which manifests itself in the denial of the principles of the capitalist economy, the weakening of the currency space of the US dollar and demonstrates a protracted nature.
Discussion. The key sign of the transformational nature of the current crisis is the strengthening of the positions of various currency areas, which can be either
newly created by the dominant country (yuan, ruble), formed according to religious (Arab gold dinar) or territorial (euro, Caribbean dollar, Swiss franc) sign, to function partially outside the legal field of the state or corporate level (cryptocurrency). This variety of zones of currency inf luence indicates high economic turbulence and serious global risks.
Conclusion. The authors argue that in the situation of global transformation, which is characterized by destructive economic and social phenomena, objective reasons have formed for the formation of several currency areas, but it is too early to talk about an unambiguous trajectory of their development and dominance.
Key words: money, crisis, transformation, currency area, currency space, payment instruments, cryptocurrency, crypto-offshore.
10.56429/2414-4894-2022-42-4-27-39

Introduction. The article is devoted to the consideration of contradictory aspects of globalization: the strengthening of economic interdependence and the increase of mass illegal migration. Taking into account the fact of growing importance of the Asia-Pacific region and Australia in the regional balance of power, the expedience of analyzing Australian economic and migration policy is justified. The experience gained by its government is taken into account as a response to global trends which pose a challenge to a nation state.
Materials and methods. The source base of the article are the documents, materials of foreign think tanks and media, statistics. In the research methodology,
the author adheres to a systematic and integrative approaches, which allow to cover all the diversity of aspects of Australian economic and migration policy at the present stage.
Discussion. Deepening of partnership between Australia and China and growing interdependence between two economies led to Beijing’s attempt to expand its political inf luence in the region, that met resistance from Canberra. Also, the growth of illegal migration led to strict migration policy by Australian authorities.
Results of the study. Australia’s desire to reduce economic dependence on China and reduce its inf luence at home has run into resistance from Beijing, whose eco
nomic sanctions however have shown little effectiveness. A serious indicator of effectiveness of Australia’s migration policy is the complete reduction of illegal migration and total control over borders.
Conclusion. The Australian case clearly shows us that when the political elites of a country correctly and timely identify the challenges of globalization, they can achieve success. The experience gained by Australia could serve as a guide and roadmap for other countries setting themselves similar goals.
Key words: Australia, globalization, China, illegal migration, economy.
10.56429/2414-4894-2022-42-4-40-57

Introduction. In the context of increasing global interdependence and aggravation of international contradictions, all countries must join forces to create
a new win-win cooperation. The purpose of the work is to analyze the features of the Chinese initiative to create a community of a common destiny for mankind,
and the tasks are to show that this initiative is an important tool for solving international problems and a key direction of China’s foreign policy in a global world.
Materials and methods. The methodological basis of the study consists of such general scientific methods of cognition as analysis, synthesis, induction, and an interdisciplinary approach in the selection of scientific sources of Oriental literature-information. The main sources of research were the official documents of the CCP, normative documents and data from the periodical press.
Results of the study. Xi’s initiative to build a community of human destiny answered the main question of where the world is heading against the backdrop of unprecedented changes in today’s globalization. China has achieved significant results in the implementation of this concept, making a new and significant contribution to the preservation of peace and stable development around the world.
Discussion. Chinese diplomacy in the new era, based on the idea of building a “Common Destiny Community”, has taken on the important role of promoting this
project, taking into account Chinese specifics and negotiating style, thus making a new and important contribution to maintaining peace and international cooperation.
Conclusions. The international situation has become more complex and unstable, the initiative to build a “Community of a Common Destiny for Humanity” provides the world community with the prospect of effectively solving common problems and settling a number of major universally significant contradictions.
Key words: unity, destiny, China, politics, world, interaction, community, transformation.

10.56429/2414-4894-2022-42-4-58-69

Editor-in-chief’s word
10.56429/2414-4894-2022-41-3-3-6

Report of the President of the Moscow Society of Naturalists, Rector of Moscow State University named after M.V. Lomonosov Academician V.A. Sadovnichy at the General Meeting of MSN September 22, 2022
10.56429/2414-4894-2022-41-3-7-15

Introduction. Within the framework of the UN Conference on Environment
and Development (Rio(92, June 1992), the foundations were laid for the concept of
sustainable development of civilization, which over the past 30 years has been imple-
mented to one degree or another in the vast majority of countries of the world com-
munity. Thus, SD(strategy became a reality of modernity, while revealing positive
trends in the middle of the 21st century.
Materials and methods. Data from both domestic and foreign scientific publi-
cations, publications of the UN and the Club of Rome were used. The study is based
on general scientific methods of logical analysis, comparison and generalization;
special attention is paid to the systematic approach.
Results of the study. The concept of sustainable development has reached the le-
vel of SD — a strategy of national(regional and global scale. The European “Green
Deal” is aimed at implementing the model of the Western European type of sustai-
nable development, which in general corresponds to the world’s conceptual views. Its
goal is to turn the EU into a highly efficient, resource(efficient and competitive
socio(economic and socio(cultural system.
The temporal dynamics of the position of the US administration in the percep-
tion and implementation of the forms and mechanisms of the sustainable develop-
ment strategy is revealed. The programs of “demographic leaders” of the 21st century
are evaluated. The contradictions and prospects for implementing the principles of
sustainable socio(economic and socio(cultural development in the specific condi-
tions of modern Russia are analyzed.
Discussion. The search for an answer to the fundamental question facing mo-
dern civilization (and science): is the SD(strategy real or is it a utopia: a desirable but
illusory goal setting of humanity? If the scientific community generally does not give
an unambiguous answer, then the state structures of many countries of the world
are already implementing programs aimed at a strategic balance of economic, en-
vironmental and socio(cultural processes. Of particular interest is the analysis of
the “degree of stability” the Russian Federation.
Conclusion. An analysis of the “thirty years of stability” of civilization shows
that within its framework the mechanisms of the dynamics of society are imple-
mented at all its levels the prolongation of which involves the construction of po-
sitive scenarios for the future. However, their realization depends on whether huma-nity manages to “slip” between Scylla of exacerbation of socio(political turbulence
and Charybdis of socio-political civilization.
Key words: Rio92, sustainable development strategy, features of the strategy of developed countries, ESGstandard, specifics of China’s sustainable development
program, model of the “new India”, specifics of the strategy of the Russian Federation
10.56429/2414-4894-2022-41-3-16-34

Introduction. For decades there have been many Islamist groups of varying levels
of radicality and activity on the territory of Afghanistan. The year 2021 was marked
by several very important events: the withdrawal of the American troops from the ter-
ritory of Afghanistan, the rise to power of the Taliban3 in August 2021 and the further
announcement of the creation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. In this article
we examine how these events have affected the reconfiguration of those forces and
the implications for global security.
Materials and methods. For this purpose, we used data from news agencies and
the results of field research in Afghanistan (Kabul, 2019), Pakistan (Islamabad, 2019)
and Tajikistan (Dushanbe, 2022) to assess the views of the expert community and
government officials on the processes we are studying. The resource(actor approach
and critical discourse analysis were also used for the analysis.
Discussion. The following structures played a key role in the reconfiguration of
jihadist forces in Afghanistan: the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, the Tehrike
Taliban Pakistan, Al(Qaeda, and the Islamic Party of Turkistan 4 . In the case of Al-
Qaeda and the Islamic Party of Turkestan, there is certain stability in the low acti-
vity of these structures and their refusal to use Afghan territory to attack other co-
untries. This indicates that at this point the Taliban are able to maintain control over
these organizations, but there remains a risk of escalation, which could result in a loss
of control over the situation. In this scenario, the Taliban have almost no tools to res-
pond quickly to the new conditions and, as a consequence, there is a threat to a num-
ber of neighboring states. The activities of the Tehrik(e Taliban Pakistan are very li-
mited, as their goals do not extend beyond Pakistan. The Taliban in Afghanistan,
however, are trying to take the position of a key mediator between this organization
and the Pakistani government, which they have so far also succeeded at doing. This is
not the case with the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, which maintains its uncom-
promising approach, refuses to negotiate with anyone, and is the biggest threat to all
countries in the region.
Results of the study. The findings of the study include how Islamist extremism is
beginning to claim its own nation(building, as well as an assessment of the poten-
tial expansion of various political forces and the threat they pose to global security.
The nature of the Taliban’s interaction with each group has been examined in detail.
The question of possible cooperation or indirect assistance to the Taliban govern(
ment against the Islamic State in Khorasan province was also addressed.
Conclusion. At the moment Taliban does not pose a threat of military expan-
sion, as it is primarily interested in maintaining its power in Afghanistan and avoids
unnecessary confrontation with neighboring states. They are also not interested in
exporting their ideology outside of Afghanistan. However, the Islamic Emirate of
Afghanistan is home to organizations that represent global jihadist structures — most
notably Al(Qaeda and the Islamic State in Khorasan Province. Al(Qaeda has re(
peatedly conf irmed through its off icial and unoff icial media that it is obliged not
to use Afghan territory to attack other countries, in order not to cause another in-
vasion on its territory. However, the Islamic State in Khorasan Province is waging
a fierce fight the Taliban and has stated its goals of expanding its area of activity
to the Central Asian republics. In this regard, it is of interest to consider the issue of
cooperation or indirect assistance to the Taliban government in the fight against this
organization. This tactic has been used before and now seems very promising and
meets the interests of the war on global terrorism.
Key words: Afghanistan, Islamism, global terrorist threat, Taliban, ISIS, Central Asia
10.56429/2414-4894-2022-41-3-35-52

Introduction. The processes of globalization taking place in the modern world
increasingly require mechanisms for managing and coordinating actions to solve glo-
bal problems. At the same time, the existing institutions of global governance, such
as the UN, demonstrate insufficient effectiveness. This makes it relevant to search
for alternative ways of global governance, developed by scientists not only in Western
countries. Of special interest are the studies of Chinese scientists, since China today
is rapidly developing and claims to occupy a leading position in the world of the fu-
ture. Consideration of Chinese ideas about how the future world system should look
like is the subject of this article.
Materials and methods. The work used systematic, global and evolutionary ap-
proaches, as well as general scientific methods: analysis of domestic and foreign lite-
rature, analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction.
Results of the study. Three theories have been developed in China that is much
more in line with the goals of sustainable human development than the prevailing
Western approaches today. The most famous and influential of these is the concept
of Tianxia (Celestial Empire) by Zhao Tingyang. Tianxia is a global system that be-
nefits all of its participants. In this, it fundamentally differs for the better from
the Western Westphalian international system based on the national interests of so-
vereign states. Yang Suetong’s theory of moral realism considers strategic trust, which
is won by stable interstate cooperation, as the main factor in international relations.
Qin Yaqing’s theory of relations argues that international relations are not a conf-
lict of opposites, but a harmonious interaction of the Yin(Yang type. In the begin-
ning, countries are in conflict, but then their values interact, enrich and pass into
each other.
Discussion. For almost its entire thousand(year history, China has been geo-
graphically, linguistically and culturally isolated from the rest of the world. China
first encountered values alien to it during the opium wars, during which it was de-
feated and realized the need to borrow advanced knowledge. In the course of several
“waves” of borrowing, China not only adopted Western ideas about international re-
lations, but also transformed them, introducing its own specifics. At present, China
offers the international community its own view of the future world order, combining
the teachings of ancient Chinese thinkers and modern Western theories of interna-
tional relations.
Conclusion. Globalization “with Chinese characteristics” will differ significant-
ly from its modern model, called “Westernization”. Today’s Westernization, and more
precisely Americanization, involves the transformation of all other countries along
the Western model. If a country refuses to accept Western values, it will face coup
attempts, violent change of political regimes, sanctions and enrollment in the cate-
gory of “rogue states”. The Chinese version of globalization assumes equal participa-
tion in the management of world affairs by all without exception, even small states.
Interacting, the cultures of different countries are not destroyed, but mutually adapt.
There are no excluded countries — absolutely everyone participates on an equal
footing in world affairs. The development of large countries is not carried out at
the expense of the rest, but on the contrary, it benefits everyone. Management is car-
ried out on the basis of the norms of morality and justice, which are based on fami-
ly values.
Key words: global world order, global governance, Chinese specif ics, Zhao Tin
gyang’s concept of Tianxia World Institute, Yang Suetong’s theory of moral realism,
Qin Yaqing’s relational theory of world politics.
10.56429/2414-4894-2022-41-3-53-69

Introduction. The leading global trend in the development of the modern world is
its digital transformation, one of the most striking manifestations of which is the ra
pid spread of cryptocurrencies. In matters of the expediency of the volume of regu
lation of cryptocurrencies, the positions of international organizations and national
governments differ significantly, which is explained by their revolutionary nature and
the dangers they pose for the financial system and the political world order.
Materials and methods. The methodological basis of the study is the general sci
entific methods of cognition: analysis, synthesis, comparison, induction and deduc
tion, abstraction, as well as the ascent from the abstract to the concrete and system
structural. In the process of working on the study, special research methods were also
used, such as: collection of scientific sources, collection of information, economic
and statistical analysis.
Results of the study. As a short(term prospect for the development of crypto-
currencies, it is advisable to strengthen the regulation of the crypto(market and form
a system of supranational crypto(regulation, and in the medium(term, the creation
of a radically new system of global governance based on crypto(currencies.
Discussion. The main trend in the development of the modern global crypto
market is the transition from a complete ban on cryptocurrencies to their full recog
nition and legalization. In the short and+ medium term, the number of cryptocurren
cies will only increase, which will inevitably lead to a crypto revolution in the global
governance system.
Conclusion. There are several concepts of global governance in modern political
science. However, while politicians and scientists are actively debating which concept
is more relevant, a crypto revolution is taking place that will contribute to changes
in the global governance system. Cryptocurrency, due to its essential characteristics,
such as anonymity and decentralization, can become the tool on the basis of which
a new global governance system will be built.
Key words: cryptocurrency, world currency, supranational regulation, cryptorevolution,
global governance, political world order, global f inancial architecture
10.56429/2414-4894-2022-41-3-70-83

Introduction. In the context of the Russian geopolitical turn and the aggravation
of international conflicts caused by the states struggle for the leading positions in
a multipolar world, the state aspects in the geopolitics theory study becomes of cur-
rent interest.
Materials and methods. General and special research methods, including the sys-
temic, historical, evolutionary and globalistic methodological approaches were used
when reviewing the paper. Dialectical, comparative, structure functional and other
methods of research were also applied.
Results of the study. The author substantiates the priority of the organicist ap-
proach to understanding the state, implying the geopolitical continuity of all politi-
cal entities with different political regimes that existed in a certain qualitative space
at different times and the existence of integral sovereignty. The article substantiates
the conclusion that the state policy has a positive prospect of implementation if it
corresponds to the geopolitical vector of the civilization living. The author assumes
the possibility to apply natural science methods to humanities.
Discussion. The article compares the founders of geopolitics and modern re(
searchers approaches of understanding the state and its ontological characteristics.
The “state as a living organism” concept priority over the “state as a mechanism of
governing” concept conclusion is made. The author proposes such a correlation be-
tween geopolitics and state policy as justified, where the geopolitical approach de-
termines the effectiveness of state political acts. In the text of the article, an attempt
is made to model the possibility to apply the methodology of physics and math or
natural science to the study of state.
Conclusions. Some aspects of the state, substantiated in the article, open
the prospect of further conceptualization of the multipolar world geopolitics ba-
sed on the recognition of the peoples’ right to cultural identity, development and
prosperity.
Key words: geopolitics, state, Eurasianism, neoEurasianism, Russian geopolitics,
organicism, cybernetics.
10.56429/2414-4894-2022-41-3-84-97