Current issue

№ 1 • 2024 • JANUARY—MARCH

Transformation of the Global World Order in Conditions of International Instability: Open World and Synergy of Civilizations

Smakotina N.L., Volkov A.V.
PDF (Rus)Subscribers only

This article shows the consideration of modern challenges and changes in the world order with an emphasis on the transition to a new polycentric world of regions. It argues that the global system is undergoing a radical transformation, and outlines the characteristics, global trends, and tendencies in shaping the new world order. In order to determine the nature of contradictory factors influencing the global order, the article explores global trends in world politics within the context of globalization and its recent changes. Special attention is given to identifying the global trajectories of political transformations in the contemporary world, characterized by high instability and uncertainty. The article elaborates on the key contours of the emerging new world order, as well as the associated critical threats, challenges, risks, and prospects.
Key words: global structure, global governance, world order, postmodern, sustainable development, Westphalian system, unipolarity, polycentrism, civilization, actor, Cold War, geopolitics, crisis.
DOI: 10.56429/2414-4894-2024-47-1-03-22

Global Law as an Emerging Area of Legal Regulation of International Relations in a Multipolar World

Grebnev R.D.
PDF (Rus)Subscribers only

The article presents the rationale for the approach to understanding global law as an emerging direction of legal regulation of international relations arising between the subjects of a polycentric system of international relations in the process of forming a multipolar world. Considering the crisis of international law and international organizations, justified in the text of the article on the example of the UN, in accordance with the author’s approach, in order to implement the concept of multipolarity, the key actors in the regionalization of political processes will have to establish a world conference aimed at adopting a global declaration of multipolarity. Global law, based on the global declaration of multipolarity, is designed to eliminate the gaps in international legal regulation that have arisen as a result of globalization and regionalization of political processes, as well as to establish global principles and priorities of international relations in a multipolar world. The relevance of the study is justified by the trends in the formation of a polycentric system of international relations and the distribution of spheres of influence between its centers. These trends are considered by the author in the context of the formation of a multipolar world. The present study aims to solve the problems of the concept of multipolarity. According to the author of the article, this decision relates to global law as a system of norms regulating relations between the subjects of a multipolar world. To substantiate the results of the study, the text of the article presents the relationship between international law and the concept of “rule-based order”. The irreversibility of the need to convene a world conference to establish a global declaration of multipolarity and form the foundations of global law on the principles of decentralization of global regulation of international relations is substantiated. The article presents the results of a study of the prerequisites for global law, its concept, subject, method and subject composition of international relations in a multipolar world.
Key words: global law, multipolarity, polycentricity, global declaration of multipolarity, crisis of international law, globalization of political processes, regionalization of political processes, decentralized system of global regulation of international affairs.
DOI: 10.56429/2414-4894-2024-47-1-23-38

Evolution of the Concept of “revolution”: a Comprehensive Analysis of the Features of the Theory of Revolutions

Bilyuga S.E., Kolesnikova E.A.
PDF (Rus)Subscribers only

The current trends of political, economic and social changes in the world, for the most part, are completely new in contrast to what was before. So, for example, the tendencies of the Great French, February or October revolutions – mass character, insurrection, violent character, complete overthrow of the previous system – in the XXI century actually completely disappeared and were replaced by a so-called completely new technologies of “color revolutions” used in various countries to change political leaders (and not state building, as it was before) through the democratization of the country by external actors. In addition, despite the more peaceful nature, new technologies do not have an effect in all countries, for example, the events in the USA (2011) and France (2018 – present) have demonstrated that in countries with a typical democratic political regime, the technologies of changing the political elite do not work, unlike those countries that do not has centuries of experience in building democratic principles and has only now begun to move towards the democratization of the system. In this regard, it is necessary to conduct an evolutionary analysis of the theory of revolutions in order to identify the stages, causes, features and trends of development in this area of the development of political sciences. In addition, the problem of versatility and ambiguity in the definition of the concept of “revolution” is now of the most urgent nature and requires a systematic approach to analysis.
Key words: socio-political destabilization, revolution, color revolutions, classical revolutions, evolution.
DOI: 10.56429/2414-4894-2024-47-1-39-56

Bait and Bleed Strategy: as a Tool for the United States to Maintain Global Hegemony

Li M., Liu P., Li Zh.
PDF (Rus)Subscribers only

Within the context of great power competition, the study of strategic theory holds significant importance for the maintenance of national security. The purpose of this paper is to interpret the bait and bleed strategy, and improve the theoretical framework and implementation pathways of the bait and bleed strategy. It explicates how the United States, through the execution of the bait and bleed strategy, achieves the prolonged attrition of its competitors, thereby preserving its relative power and the stability of its global hegemony. J. Mearsheimer, in “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics”, defines the “bait and bleed strategy” as one of the core strategies employed by the United States in its global pursuit of power and hegemony. Building upon this foundation, this article categorizes the implementation pathways of the bait and bleed strategy into two modes: seduction and provocation. When bait serves as a means of seducing others, decision-makers, beset by internal and external troubles, often opt for strategic compromises in exchange for bait that could alleviate their immediate predicaments. Consequently, they fall into traps stealthily pre-set by those who deploy the bait. On the other hand, when bait serves as a means of provoking others, states lacking a sense of security and possessing a strong perception of threat, are prone to entanglement in a security dilemma with a supported competitor, and may even resort to war, leading to prolonged attrition for themselves. This article employs two pioneering historical cases to examine the theoretical framework proposed above: NATO’s enticement of Russia to concede on the issue of German reunification, and its provocation of Russia, leading to its prolonged attrition in the Ukrainian crisis. The research findings indicate that the bait and bleed strategy is a significant strategic tool for the United States and its allies to exhaust and isolate their primary competitors. It is only by fully weighing the structural contradictions and long-term objectives of the competitors within the context of great power strategic competition, and by achieving rational and restrained decision-making, that the strategic risks of falling into bait and bleed traps can be mitigated.
Key words: great power competition, bait and bleed strategy, Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO Eastern expansion.
DOI: 10.56429/2414-4894-2024-47-1-57-79

Features and Prospects of the Digital Yuan Development in the Field of International Finance

Mosakova E.A., Mirzabekov N.R.
PDF (Rus)Subscribers only

One of the trends of digitalization processes is the imposing of digital currencies aimed at simplifying and enhancing the transparency of settlements. China is actively promoting the digital yuan through the existing payment infrastructure. However, the country also faces a number of obstacles caused by U.S. sanctions’ pressure, as well as the emergence of digital currencies in a number of other states. Despite this, in international finance, there is a decrease in interest on the part of states in using the U.S. dollar in international settlements, which creates new conditions for the active development of the Chinese digital currency. In the course of the work, both general scientific methods were used, as well as special research methods such as collecting scientific sources, collecting information, economic and statistical analysis, SWOT analysis and scenario method. Within the framework of the article, a schematic description of the two-level digital yuan system was presented, strengths, weaknesses, threats, as well as scenarios for the development of the Chinese digital currency were identified. It was determined that the growth rate of the digital yuan is steadily growing, which is accompanied by an increasing trend towards a decrease in interest in the use of the dollar in international finance. Analysis of trends in the development of the digital yuan showed that the most promising development scenario in the coming years is the active conclusion of bilateral economic agreements with other countries related to the transition to the yuan in international settlements, as well as an increase in the number of wallets among the population of the country (wallets are owned by just over 10 percent of the population).
Key words: digital currency, digital yuan, digitalization, digital economy, international finance, cryptocurrency, world economy.
DOI: 10.56429/2414-4894-2024-47-1-80-95

German’s Approach to the Usage of Military Tools Outside NATO’s Zone of Responsibility: the Reasons of Integration or Geopolitics?

Trunov Ph.O.
PDF (Rus)Subscribers only

FRG’s foreign policy has been facing the shifting the balance between two groups of factors to the second one. The groups are the historical responsibility of Germany as the key aggressor in the Second World War and German’s interest to ensure the widest possible military-strategic presence on the world stage. The growing importance of the second factor stimulates the growing of geopolitical determination in the usage of the Bundeswehr outside the NATO’s zone of responsibility. In this regard the article tries to explore the ratio between the geopolitical and integration reasons. The scientific paper bases on the usage of the documents of the Bundestag, Office of the Federal Chancellor, Ministry of Defence and also NATO. The author uses the neoliberalism and neorealism theories, the method of comparative analysis. The article explores the importance of geopolitical reasons in Germany’s military activity in the Balkans, in Somali (the Horn of Africa), Afghanistan (the Middle East), in the Near East and in the northern parts of Africa. The author shows the opportunities for camouflage of geopolitical reasons under integration in FRG’s military activity. FRG has been increasing noticeably the contribution to and role in the system of confrontations between the “liberal democracies” and key non-Western actors (Russia, China and Iran). The tendency is de-facto accompanied by increasing importance of geopolitical reasons in German military activity at the global level. It will lead to removal of informal taboos, open discussion about the role of geopolitical factors in German socio-political and scientific discourse in the future. The scientific paper stresses the importance of geopolitical factors for the usage of the Bundeswehr outside the NATO’s zone of responsibility, especially for the key cases (in Afghanistan and Mali).
Key words: Germany, Bundeswehr, military presence, global level, integration, association, geopolitics.
DOI: 10.56429/2414-4894-2024-47-1-96-110

Fall Session Results of the International Scientific Congress “Globalistics-2023: Challenges of Artificial Intelligence and Change of Scientific and Technological Paradigms”

Ilyin I.V., Gabdullin R.R., Rubtsova E.V., Prokhorova D.A.
PDF (Rus)Subscribers only

The article describes the fall session of the International Scientific Congress “Globalistics-2023: challenges of artificial intelligence and change of scientific and technological paradigms”, held from October, 23 to October, 27, 2023. Events of the Congress were held in online, mixed and offline formats. The panelists presented their ideas in Russian, English and Chinese. The article is devoted to the results of the spring session of the Congress.
Key words: globalistics, artificial intelligence, Vernadsky, sustainable development, Faculty of Global Studies, Club of Rome, the future of humanity.
DOI: 10.56429/2414-4894-2024-47-1-111-127