Introduction. For decades there have been many Islamist groups of varying levels
of radicality and activity on the territory of Afghanistan. The year 2021 was marked
by several very important events: the withdrawal of the American troops from the ter-
ritory of Afghanistan, the rise to power of the Taliban3 in August 2021 and the further
announcement of the creation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. In this article
we examine how these events have affected the reconfiguration of those forces and
the implications for global security.
Materials and methods. For this purpose, we used data from news agencies and
the results of field research in Afghanistan (Kabul, 2019), Pakistan (Islamabad, 2019)
and Tajikistan (Dushanbe, 2022) to assess the views of the expert community and
government officials on the processes we are studying. The resource(actor approach
and critical discourse analysis were also used for the analysis.
Discussion. The following structures played a key role in the reconfiguration of
jihadist forces in Afghanistan: the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, the Tehrike
Taliban Pakistan, Al(Qaeda, and the Islamic Party of Turkistan 4 . In the case of Al-
Qaeda and the Islamic Party of Turkestan, there is certain stability in the low acti-
vity of these structures and their refusal to use Afghan territory to attack other co-
untries. This indicates that at this point the Taliban are able to maintain control over
these organizations, but there remains a risk of escalation, which could result in a loss
of control over the situation. In this scenario, the Taliban have almost no tools to res-
pond quickly to the new conditions and, as a consequence, there is a threat to a num-
ber of neighboring states. The activities of the Tehrik(e Taliban Pakistan are very li-
mited, as their goals do not extend beyond Pakistan. The Taliban in Afghanistan,
however, are trying to take the position of a key mediator between this organization
and the Pakistani government, which they have so far also succeeded at doing. This is
not the case with the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, which maintains its uncom-
promising approach, refuses to negotiate with anyone, and is the biggest threat to all
countries in the region.
Results of the study. The findings of the study include how Islamist extremism is
beginning to claim its own nation(building, as well as an assessment of the poten-
tial expansion of various political forces and the threat they pose to global security.
The nature of the Taliban’s interaction with each group has been examined in detail.
The question of possible cooperation or indirect assistance to the Taliban govern(
ment against the Islamic State in Khorasan province was also addressed.
Conclusion. At the moment Taliban does not pose a threat of military expan-
sion, as it is primarily interested in maintaining its power in Afghanistan and avoids
unnecessary confrontation with neighboring states. They are also not interested in
exporting their ideology outside of Afghanistan. However, the Islamic Emirate of
Afghanistan is home to organizations that represent global jihadist structures — most
notably Al(Qaeda and the Islamic State in Khorasan Province. Al(Qaeda has re(
peatedly conf irmed through its off icial and unoff icial media that it is obliged not
to use Afghan territory to attack other countries, in order not to cause another in-
vasion on its territory. However, the Islamic State in Khorasan Province is waging
a fierce fight the Taliban and has stated its goals of expanding its area of activity
to the Central Asian republics. In this regard, it is of interest to consider the issue of
cooperation or indirect assistance to the Taliban government in the fight against this
organization. This tactic has been used before and now seems very promising and
meets the interests of the war on global terrorism.
Key words: Afghanistan, Islamism, global terrorist threat, Taliban, ISIS, Central Asia
10.56429/2414-4894-2022-41-3-35-52