The authors consider 2022 as a turning point, completing the next stage of history and marking the beginning of a new era. The method of global political forecasting is used as an extrapolation of the global political challenges that have developed in the present, which predetermine trends in the development of global political processes, to the future state of the global political system. This method represents a probabilistic approach to the phenomena of the future, taking into account a wide range of possible options and it can be used for short-term forecasts. The future is seen as a product of politics, and political activity as an important component that can largely determine trends in global development. Based on the use of the “challenge-response” principle, it becomes possible to predict not the probability of any events, but a certain predetermined reaction to global political challenges. The article forecasts trends in the development of global political processes and provides a forecast of the formation of the international agenda for the coming years. The following trends in the development of global political processes have been identified: the geopolitical rift; the ongoing crisis of global governance; humanitarian disasters caused by a number of global crises (climate, energy, food, migration) and the increase in conflict potential; the increasing role of the countries of the Global South in geopolitics; the development of the format of minilatralism and its impact on international cooperation. The analysis showed that it is political goals and objectives, values and meanings that become the dominant locomotive of global political development and motivators of political action by global political actors. The authors have made the conclusion about the increasing role of the political component of global processes.
Key words: global political forecasting, “challenge—response”, global political challenges, global political processes, trends in global development.
10.56429/2414-4894-2023-45-3-3-22