Under the sanctions pressure of unfriendly states, fundamental changes are taking place in Russia’s foreign trade. An analysis of the state of foreign trade relations, taking into account modern geopolitical challenges, allows us to determine the prospects for the development of Russia’s exports and imports. The purpose of the study is to identify the features of the country’s foreign trade, on the basis of which it is possible to build a forecast based on econometric modeling of export and import indicators. The object of the study is the foreign trade of the Russian Federation by region of the world. The subject of the study is Russia’s export and import in the context of geopolitical challenges. The objectives of the study are to identify the dynamics and structure of foreign trade from 2000 to 2024, some problems in export-import activities; determining the forecast values ​​of Russian export and import indicators for 2025-2026 through the use of special mathematical tools.
The study is based on statistical methods of information analysis and the use of a scenario approach. The use of this methodology allows us to identify the features of the current state of Russia’s foreign trade and develop a forecast for the medium term.
The analysis of Russia’s foreign trade from 2000 to the 1st quarter of 2019 was carried out. 2025; the features of the development of foreign economic relations were established; changes that occurred in the structure of Russian trade turnover between the regions of the world were revealed; forecast values ​​of Russia’s exports and imports for 2025-2026 were determined.
It was concluded that Russia is increasing the volume of foreign trade with countries in the Asian and African regions against the backdrop of a reduction in the share of countries in America, Oceania and Europe. The reorientation of sales markets, parallel imports, and the rapid transition to the use of national currencies in settlements with friendly states made it possible to neutralize the effect of the imposed anti-Russian sanctions.
Key words: Russia’s foreign trade, trade and economic sanctions, export-import, unfriendly states, scenario approach, medium-term forecasting.