№ 1 • 2022 • JANUARY—MARCH

Editor-in-chief’s word (№1 2022)

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Editor-in-chief’s word

Modeling and Forecasting Of Global Dynamics in the XXI Century

Sadovnichiy Victor A., Akaev Askar A., Ilyin Ilya V., Korotaev Andrey V., Malkov Sergey Yu.
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Introduction. In the last quarter of the 20th century, the nature of global demo
graphic and economic development began to change rapidly: the continuously accel
erating growth of the main characteristics that had taken place over the previous two
hundred years was replaced by their sharp deceleration. The article presents the pre
liminary results of research on mathematical modeling and forecasting of world
7dynamics, aimed at analyzing observed trends and carried out within the framework
of the Russian Science Foundation project No. 20 61 46004 “World development
and ‘limits to growth’ in the 21st century: modeling and forecasting” (supervisor —
academician V.A. Sadovnichy).
Materials and methods. During the research, a cognitive scheme of the interac
tion of various spheres of life at different stages of historical development was formed,
basic dynamic equations were proposed that reflect these interactions, and a modi
fication of these equations was substantiated in relation to different historical eras.
For each historical epoch, based on the analysis of the corresponding system of equa
tions, a phase portrait was determined and its features were analyzed. Based on this
analysis, conclusions were drawn about the patterns of world development in the pe
riod under review.
Results of the study. The results of mathematical modeling have shown that hu
manity is currently moving into a fundamentally new phase of historical develop
ment, when the old economic and social technologies (liberal capitalism, classical so
cialism) no longer work. There is a transition of human society to a new phase state,
the shape of which has not yet been determined. Under these conditions, we are not
talking about forecasting, but about designing the future in new historical conditions.
The struggle of world projects begins. The project that is more successful will win.
The analysis of these projects was carried out.
Discussion. The materials of the article reflect the view of Russian scientists
on the cardinal changes taking place in the world in recent decades, based on mo
deling long term (lasting hundreds and thousands of years) macrosocial processes.
An analysis of options for further world development is made. Analysis and modeling
have shown that the interaction in the “society—nature” system will depend on
the type of social interactions that will be formed in the future society.
Conclusion. On the basis of the analysis carried out, an alternative project of
the future W society (with the conditional name “World organism”) is proposed,
based on the primacy of the principles of cooperation over the principles of compe
tition, Russia can and should formulate. If this project is implemented, as mathema
tical modeling shows, it is possible to solve global problems related to ecology, global
warming, and energy. This global project will make it possible to implement the ideas
of prominent Russian humanist scientists on the formation of a fundamentally new
integrative noospheric society at a new stage of historical development, the path to
which goes through the partnership of civilizations.
L.E. Grinin, N.O. Kovaleva, A.I. Andreev, S.E. Bilyuga, A.L. Grinin, O.I. Davy
dova, D.M. Musieva, were also intensely engaged in the research, who by right should
be considered as co authors of this article.
Key words: modeling, forecasting, global processes, growth limits, world development forecast.

International Relations Theory

The World is Bipolar, Unipolar, Multipolar and Non-polar

Burovsky Andrey M.
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Introduction. The article deals with the problem of the multipolarity of the
world on the scale of World history. The subject of research — is the folding of re
gional and global “centers of power” in different historical periods.
Materials and method s. An interdisciplinary interscientific method is used to
study the material.
Results of the study. The results of the study allow us to conclude that the do
minance of one or many centers is the same throughout history.
Discussion. The main tendency of globalist studies is revealed — they do not go
beyond the maximum of the last 300 years of world history. There is no search for
universal patterns inherent in the processes of domination of different states, regions
and peoples at all times
Conclusion. Studying the phenomenon of the “poles of the world” allows us
to see that such “centers of economic and political power” have always existed in
all regions of the Earth. The “poles” acquire a global character as the world econo
my and the world political system take shape. The modern transition to a multipolar
world from a shor t period of US domination is a short and ordinar y episode in
world history.
Key words: economics, politics, world order, globalism, civilization, domination,
center of influence.

Transformation of Sovereignty in the EU

Fedosova Victoria A.
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Introduction. The application of the principle of subsidiarity in the European
Union raised the question of preserving national sovereignty in the decision making
of its members. The article considers approaches to the concept of sovereignty and
regionalization and attempts to apply the theoretical framework of sovereignty to
the existing model of decision making in the EU.
Materials and methods. The article uses a systematic method for assessing sov
ereignty in the structure of decision making in the EU, historical method to analyze
the concepts of sovereignty, a functional method for determining the limitations of
its application, a case analysis in assessing the manifestation of sovereignty by EU
subjects, content analysis of official statements and sources of the EU regulatory
framework that provides the possibility of exercising sovereignty.
Results of the study. The EU countries continue to exercise sovereignty, which
is especially evident in crisis situations, such as, for example, the COVID 19 pande
mic, migration crisis, information warfare when decision making at the level of na
tional governments is in place. Moreover, in the context of the EU, there is a legal
niche for the realization of sovereignty, the promotion of favorable terms of coope
ration for member states, in some cases there is a disregard for European norms.
Discussion. Sovereignty remains an essential aspect of politics, and becomes tan
gible when used. Against the backdrop of new challenges, such as regionalization, mi
gration, the coronavirus pandemic, new foundations for rapid decision making based
on sovereignty will be required. The discourse of the open market, which predeter
mined the analysis of integration processes in Europe, will be revised, and the prob
lem of sovereignty will be reconsidered.
Conclusion. The historical analysis of approaches to the concept of overeignty
shows its conventional and relative nature, and sovereignty manifests itself even in
the European regionalism.
Key words: sovereignty, the EU.

Topical issues of international cooperation

Challenges and Threats to the National Security of the Arab Republic of Egypt in North Africa and Ways to Overcome Them

Vasetsova Elena S., Sokolov Lays Igor S.
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Introduction. The article shows Egypt’s policy towards North African countries
after Abdel Fattah Al Sisi came to power in 2014. Particular attention is paid to
the analysis of the Egyptian national security.
Materials and methods. The authors rely on a large body of research: mono
graphs by domestic and foreign political scientists, relevant data and documents from
Russian and external institutions, scientific articles, normative legal acts. Agreeing
with the validity of the modernist and postmodernist concepts of analysis of inter
national relations, applying the institutional approach, the authors relied heavily on
the classical model of political realism. Among the main general research methods
were analysis, synthesis and deduction.
Results of the study. To prevent the challenges and threats outlined by us, Egypt
faces very serious goals, the absence of a solution to which could lead to catastro
phic consequences.
Discussion. Today Egypt is facing a number of regional challenges that threaten
the republic’s national security. In particular, the Libyan conflict, the construction
and operation of the Renaissance dam on the Blue Nile river.
Conclusion. Goals to prevent threats include: improving the work of the state
bodies, coordinating cooperation between the countries of the region, international
assistance in resolving disputes between countries.
Key words: national security, Egypt, North Africa, Libyan crisis, Libya, Ethiopia,
dam, regional cooperation.

International Cooperation in the Brain Research as a Factor of Ai9technologies Development in Russia

Vykhodets Roman S.
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Introduction. One of the key factors in the development of artificial intelli
gence (AI) technologies is fundamental brain research. Currently, only seven count
ries are implementing major national brain research projects. In the context of the
implementation of Russia’s AI strategy, the development of international coopera
tion in the field of brain research is of significant importance.
Materials and methods. The research uses general scientific methods: analysis,
synthesis, systematic and comparative. Informational and institutional approaches,
as well as theoretical concepts of modern globalism are applied. The main materials
are scientific publications of Russian and foreign authors on the studied issues, as
well as official strategic documents and information and analytical reports.
Results of the study. Most national brain research projects record the achieve
ments of neuroscience as an important factor for the development of AI technolo
gies. Currently, a large, open and convergent brain science has been formed at the
international level, claiming to be fundamental discoveries, which will largely deter
mine the vector of scientific and technological progress in the 21st century and plays
a significant role in international integration processes.
Discussion. After 02.22.2022, Russia is facing severe sanctions pressure, in
cluding in the high tech sector. Therefore, it is important for Russia to keep the issues
of scientific and technological development at the level of low policy.
Conclusion. International cooperation in the field of brain science will beco
me an important factor in the development of AI technologies for Russia, and will
contribute to overcoming the consequences of sanctions in the f ield of high tech
Key words: global study, informatization, Big Brain Science, neuromorphic tech-
nologies, artificial intelligence, AI, international cooperation.

Energy Cooperation as a Factor in Promoting the Development of Integration Associations in Latin America

Naumenko Tamara V., Tsorieva Zara Kh.
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Introduction. The article examines the most important component of the Latin
American economy — the energy sector, the development of which is on the agenda
in many integration groupings in the region. The relevance of the work is substan
tiated and the main purpose of the article is formulated — to identify the specifics
and prospects for the development of integration processes in the energy sector in
the Latin American region, which are mainly related to the current energy agenda
in the world.
Materials and methods. The main method and explanatory principle of the work
is the institutional activity approach in conjunction with the principles of histori
cism, systematic and comparative analysis, as well as the analysis of the study of this
problem in the modern scientific space. The article is based on the scientific works
of foreign and domestic scientists devoted to various aspects of the study of integ
ration processes in Latin America and the development of the Latin American ener
gy market.
Results of the study. In the course of the study of integration processes in La
tin America, the influence of the energy factor on integration in the Latin American
region has been determined, as well as trends and prospects for the development of
integration processes in the energy sector in the Latin American region, which are
98mainly related to the current energy agenda in the world, have been identified and
Discussion. In order to achieve the goal, the features of the development of the
regional energy market of Latin America are analyzed and several of the most pressing
issues are identified, such as energy security, which also stimulates the integration
processes in the region under study, the development of investment activities, the re
jection of traditional energy sources, the capacity building of renewable energy and
the implementation of climate policy.
Conclusion. It is concluded that the energy sector can serve as a new impetus
for the activation of integration processes in the region and its study in this aspect
carries not only elements of novelty, but also prospects for optimizing integration
Key words: energy, integration, investment, Latin America, MERCOSUR, re-
newable energy sources, energy security, climate policy.

Historical Context of Transformational Changes of the Political Regime of Saudi Arabia (30s XXth — Until Now)

T imakhov Kirill V.
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Introduction. In modern scientific discourse, much attention is paid to emerging
countries striving to conduct modernization reforms to acquire a new regional po
sition. It directly correlates with the evolution of political power that implements
these alterations, which is why Saudi Arabia, as the flagship of the Middle East, is of
interest for study.
Materials and methods. The analysis of historical literature, modern scientific
articles on transformational changes, as well as official legal documents, in particular
the basic law of the kingdom, was carried out. A number of methods have been ap
plied: generalization of characteristics, analysis of the source base, and the method
of historicism, chronological and comparative analysis.
Results of the study. As part of the study, it was identified the stages of trans
formational changes that took place in Saudi Arabia, established the degree of conti
nuity in the internal political course of various rulers, and outlined turning points that
influenced power relations.
Discussion. Despite the availability of a certain amount of information on the
various stages of the Saudi Arabian monarchs’ reign, there is no unified perspective
on the entire period of political power evolution, including the modern stage, and
the identification of tendentiousness of the emerging power relations.
Conclusion. The conclusion about the dependence of the level of consolidation
of ruling family members of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the stability of the co
untry’s political architecture in the context of emergence of new internal and external
challenges caused by globalization processes is made.
Key words: the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, political regime, transformational
changes, political architecture, evolution of power.