№ 3 • 2023 • JULY—SEPTEMBER

Emerging Trends in Global Political Processes

Ilyin Ilya V., Leonova Olga G.
PDF (Rus)Subscribers only

The authors consider 2022 as a turning point, completing the next stage of history and marking the beginning of a new era. The method of global political forecasting is used as an extrapolation of the global political challenges that have developed in the present, which predetermine trends in the development of global political processes, to the future state of the global political system. This method represents a probabilistic approach to the phenomena of the future, taking into account a wide range of possible options and it can be used for short-term forecasts. The future is seen as a product of politics, and political activity as an important component that can largely determine trends in global development. Based on the use of the “challenge-response” principle, it becomes possible to predict not the probability of any events, but a certain predetermined reaction to global political challenges. The article forecasts trends in the development of global political processes and provides a forecast of the formation of the international agenda for the coming years. The following trends in the development of global political processes have been identified: the geopolitical rift; the ongoing crisis of global governance; humanitarian disasters caused by a number of global crises (climate, energy, food, migration) and the increase in conflict potential; the increasing role of the countries of the Global South in geopolitics; the development of the format of minilatralism and its impact on international cooperation. The analysis showed that it is political goals and objectives, values and meanings that become the dominant locomotive of global political development and motivators of political action by global political actors. The authors have made the conclusion about the increasing role of the political component of global processes.
Key words: global political forecasting, “challenge—response”, global political challenges, global political processes, trends in global development.

Corruption as a Factor of Socio-political Destabilization in Neighboring Russia Countries: Experience of Quantitative Analysis

Bilyuga Stanislav E., Goryunova Maria E.
PDF (Rus)Subscribers only

The events of the early 2000s showed that the technologies of changing power through “color revolutions” work in countries with a high level of perception of corruption, other things being equal, problems in the economy, politics and society. The objective of this study is to study, using quantitative methods, the existence of links and patterns between the corruption perception index and types of socio-political destabilization, in particular, for neighboring countries, as one of the unstable zones of the world. The conducted statistical analysis showed that for neighboring countries there is a statistically significant positive relationship between the value of the corruption perception index and various indices of socio-political destabilization. The obtained result proves why the revolutionary events of the XXI century in the region under consideration occur precisely in those countries where the level of perception of corruption has high values.
Key words: socio-political destabilization, index of corruption, index of socio-political destabilization, types of socio-political destabilization.

Foreign Policy Orientation of the Republic of Serbia at the Present Stage

Bocharova Zoya S., Natzike Belike
PDF (Rus)Subscribers only

Modern international relations are experiencing extreme uncertainty, military and political polarization, which increases the negative consequences of interstate relations. Geopolitical changes associated with the collapse of states, changes from national borders and threats to the sovereignty of small countries are becoming a factor of instability. The Republic of Serbia is a vivid example of this regard. The purpose of this article is to investigate the factors determining the foreign policy guidelines on the Republic of Serbia at the present stage. The specificity of the place of Serbia in the world arena is determined by its strategic geopolitical position and aspiration for dominance in the Western Balkans and the Non-Aligned Movement. It has been revealed that the stability of the foreign policy of the Republic of Serbia is given by the awareness of the goals of national security, multi-vector strategy “four pillars”. Realizing that confrontation with the world political relations contributes to their imbalance and destabilization, Serbia declares a policy of neutrality and maneuvering in order to preserve its sovereignty and identity, to avoid excessive pressure of the dominant powers. The European foreign policy vectors remain a priority to Serbia. But on the way to European Union membership, there are unresolved problems related to the recognition of Kosovo independence, sanctions against Russia, anti-American sentiments of the majority of the population. At the same time, Serbia realizes the economic advantages of cooperation not only with the EU, but also with China, and pragmatically relies on Russia’s support in solving economic problems and the Kosovo issue. Factors shaping Serbia’s foreign policy are multilateral diplomacy, multilateral cooperation, non-use of force, peaceful mediation and peacemaking, and a desire for peaceful political resolution of conflicts.
Key words: foreign policy course, foreign policy priorities, foreign policy, Re8 public of Serbia, China, Russia, EU, USA.

Implementation of the Experience of Scientific and Technical Cooperation Between the Ussr and the Usa in Overcoming the Systemic Crisis in Relations Between Russia and the United States

Kunts Victor Y.
PDF (Rus)Subscribers only

In the context of the transformation of the system of international relations towards a multipolar world, it becomes obvious that contradictions arise in the field of international cooperation, which has destructive consequences for the development of the world community. In connection with the expansion of negative trends in the field of world progress, the experience of scientific and technical cooperation between the USSR and the USA in the 20th century can be used to maintain interaction between Russia and the USA in modern geopolitical conditions, at least at the minimum acceptable level. Between the Russian Federation and the United States, interaction in space continues, despite the systemic crisis in relations and serious contradictions in the conceptual foundations of the countries’ foreign policy. However, the half-century experience of cooperation between the Soviet Union and the United States in the field of protecting the environment and the oceans has now been suspended. The main sources of work were the materials of the periodical press, legal documents regulating the relations between states, documents of international organizations, speeches by leaders of countries and statistical data on the scientific and technical policy of countries. The article uses the scientific research of Russian and foreign authors who studied the “detente of international tension”, the experience of cooperation between the USSR and the USA in the field of science and technology, as well as the prospects for scientific and technological revolution in Russia and the United States. Systemic contradictions in relations between Russia and the United States may lead to the formation of a new Cold War and possible direct confrontation between the countries and their allies in the future. However, the joint development of the near-Earth space by Russia as the legal successor of the USSR and the United States is a kind of barrier to direct confrontation and one of the possible ways to normalize relations between countries.
Key words: scientific and technical cooperation, global problems, relations bet8 ween Russia and the USA, space cooperation, environmental protection.

Political Aspects of the Iran-China Agreement on the Universal Cooperation: Rapprochement of Iran and China in the Context of the Opposition to the USA

Ebrahimitorkaman Ali
PDF (Rus)Subscribers only

The article discusses the comprehensive agreement between Iran and China on comprehensive strategic cooperation reached in March 2021, which the parties came to three years after the US withdrew from the nuclear agreement with Iran, in the context of the development of Iranian-Chinese relations at the present stage that have reached the level of strategic partnership. During the presidency of Donald Trump, China and especially Iran were subjected to serious political and economic pressure, which, on the one hand, led to a decrease in Iranian-Chinese economic cooperation, and on the other hand, greatly contributed to the political rapprochement of the two countries and ultimately helped to reach a strategic agreement. According to it, China will modernize Iran’s infrastructure and invest $400 billion in its economy in exchange for a discount on the purchase of Iranian oil. Despite optimistic expectations, the actual results of the implementation of the agreement turned out to be unsatisfactory: trade and investment did not grow as quickly as expected. This is due to the reluctance of Chinese companies to fall under US sanctions. However, the serious development of trade and economic cooperation with Iran is, of course, a long-term goal of the PRC leadership. Further implementation of the agreement will depend on China’s intentions and its willingness to worsen relations with its largest trading partner, the United States. If the US returns to the nuclear agreement and lifts sanctions, full implementation of the agreement can be expected.
Key words: Iran, China, energy, strategic cooperation, comprehensive agreement

Spring Session Results of the International Scientific Congress “Globalistics-2023: Sustainable Development in the Context of Global Processes”

Ilyin Ilya V., Gabdullin Ruslan R., Rubtsova Ekaterina V., Prokhorova Daria A.
PDF (Rus)Subscribers only

This article describes the spring session of the International Scientific Congress “Globalistics-2023: Sustainable development in the context of global processes”, held from April, 17 to April, 27, 2023. Within the framework of the Congress, events were held in online, mixed and offline formats. The panelists presented their ideas in Russian, English and Chinese. The article is devoted to the results of the spring session of the Congress.
Key words: globalistics, Vernadsky, sustainable development, noosphere, ecology, Faculty of Global Processes, Club of Rome, the future of humanity